What's the right price for a Segway?

[ftropea]

If you were going to put one under this Christmas tree this year, what would be the right price for you?

I'm thinking somewhere around $2,499.00

Although I'll probably be buying on at 3K when they're available for sale :) I'd like to get two however - one for me and my wife. So getting that price down would be nice, although not critical.

One must wonder, however, in today's economy - will consumer's open up their wallets for a Segway at $3K or more a pop?

Regards,

Frank A. Tropea
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Ginger : Robotics :: PC : Computers

[Casey]

Around here the kids get their parents to pay 5 to 6 thousand dollars for four wheel ATV's.

And the big boys pay $25000 to $30000 for fancy bass and air boats. I'm not talking about the RICH big boys. These are guys who work at the tire store or local electric shop for $8 per hour.

$3000 for something as new and obviously fun as a Segway would be chump change compared to those boats.

Frank

[n/a]

quote:Although I'll probably be buying on at 3K when they're available for sale :) I'd like to get two however - one for me and my wife. So getting that price down would be nice, although not critical.


I am curious as to what your reasons for buying would be Frank. Is it because of your involvement with the ginger mystery or is it because u are an early adapter and are curious, or is it because u consider Segway as a more efficient and sensible way to get around than the alternatives that are available?

[Casey]

Good morning (here) Lawrence. Good to see you joined us. I hope the conversation picks up enough here to keep you interested. Welcome.:)

Frank

[n/a]

Thanks Casey. I will do what I can to help make this forum interesting. I would like it to succeed. BTW I wonder if anybody has tried sending a message to Segway that a new forum has been started for the purpose of serious discussion on Segway?

[Casey]

We are working on spreading the word. I don't know who all has been contacted yet.

Frank

[ziggystardust_]

Rather than the 'right' price for me, I'll comment on what I think the right price for the general populace should be, given the 'intended use(s)' of the Segway.

Comparing a Segway purchase to an ATV or a fishing boat is not an accurate comparison. Neither is comparing it to a car entirely accurate.

The 'intended use' of the Segway is that of enhanced mobility for the sake of productivity. While 'fun factor' could be a piece of the puzzle, it is no where near as evident with the HT as with an ATV or a fishing boat or other 'adventure sports' type of transportation devices. Having ridden the HT I know that it does not fall under adventure sports. IT can be fun, but at what price point does the fun of riding it become undermined by the stress of paying for it (for the general populace, not for the wealthy minority)?

scooters can cost a couple hundred. bikes can cost a few hundred. That's the comparison of the device itself. 3k for the device itself is too much. If you figure that an electric scooter (sans DS) can be had for sub 1k prices, paying 3 times as much for the DS and redundant systems is prohibitive.

For the device itself I think it would have to scale to about the 1k price range to be successful. A little more expensive than other standard scooters. less expensive than cars which also offer comfort, shelter, entertainment (radio etc.), climate control, etc.

But, when you buy a Segway, you're buying more than just the device itself. You are also buying a membership into the EPAMD legislation which means, unlike other scooters, you can legally ride these on sidewalks with pedestrians. There are limitations put on usage, but it gives you that VIP access. I think that's worth another 50% premium on the 1k price, bringing it to $1500.

Unfortunately it's a catch 22. The technology put into the Segway that has allowed it to be legalized on sidewalks (DS, redundant systems), is the same technology that will keep it's price point above the 'standard populace' threshold for the foreseeable future. Reduce the technology, make it cheaper and sell more, but also make it unsafe and get it banned from sidewalks. Keep the technology constant and they can't get it down to an attainable price point.

Add a stirling it it will extend range but make it even more niche (plus much more theft prone. btw, how is insurance covering this?)

So my analysis is that the cost of the technology which keeps it relatively stable and safe is going to keep the Segway at a price point that will make this a niche player for the forseeable future.

[Casey]

quote:Comparing a Segway purchase to an ATV or a fishing boat is not an accurate comparison. Neither is comparing it to a car entirely accurate.



That comparison was for the purpose of showing that Non-rich people will spend Big dollars on something they consider fun, or "kuel". Once Segway is available and people get to sample it by getting the neighbor to let them ride it, I think it will quickly become "kuel" (or however they spell that expression, when I was young, it was "cool")

In addition, even at $2500 to $3000 you could buy about ten Segways for the price of the average new family sedan. That puts the price in an entirely different light than comparing it to common scooters priced in the hundreds. And it would supplement that sedan, not replace it. It could however replace that 2nd car.

Fun is far from the only use for it, as you could make that trip to the 7-11 on it and save a bundle on fuel as well as wear and tear on that $25000 family sedan and it's tires that cost upward of $100 each to replace. An engine replacement in a Toyota Camry for instance can run $5000 to $6000. Far in excess of replacing the entire Segway.

There are a lot of ways to look at it. But I see no problem with people paying the price of a fine bicycle, for a fine DS transporter.

Frank

[ftropea]

Lawrence: Fair questions...

We don't own a car. We commute to the city via public transportation. On the weekends, we travel by bus, foot or car service (just to visit each other's parents.)

With a Segway-HT, we would have the flexibility to go to the NEXT supermarket 10 blocks further away from the one we currently use (their prices suck, but it's closer), we could easily see out parent's and friends without waiting for a bus.. or paying for car service. We could have more fun, spending more time together exploring the area and going to areas we normally wouldn't walk to because you have to walk that same distance coming back. So we'd explore more... enjoy our extra time together more... be less exhausted from hauling stuff around like the little worker ants we are... just improve our quality of life in general.

Regards,

Frank A. Tropea
----------------------------------
Ginger : Robotics :: PC : Computers

[Antagony]

quote:We don't own a car. We commute to the city via public transportation. On the weekends, we travel by bus, foot or car service (just to visit each other's parents.)


ftropea, why don't u buy a car? It would seem that things would be a lot easier for you if you had one.

[yop]

Does anyone have any idea about the cost for the parts in a Segway? And how much of the retail price is going towards recovering the R&D costs?

Some products have very high R&D costs, but then the actual manufacturing is pretty inexpensive. So the price of the product is high in the beginning to recoup those initial costs, then it drops quickly. How fast depends on what the competition does, or on how long the patents hold.

One example of a product like this is computer chips. Designing a chip architecture is a long and expensive process; manufacturing the fully functional chips is actually quite inexpensive. So the price is high at first, then it drops. Of course, by then they've come out with a new, better version, so you have to shell out big bucks for the new one. If there were a market for chips that were 20 years obsolete, they could be manufactured for pennies apiece.

Another example is medicines. High R&D costs because of all the safety testing. High initial price to recoup those costs. Price drops precipitously when patent runs out, because generics can be sold for the price of manufacture. (Generic drug makers produce exactly the same active ingredient as the namebrand, but because they don't do any R&D (they just wait until the patents expire), they have much lower overhead costs and so can afford to price their products much lower.)

Is the Segway like this? Can we expect the price to drop a lot in the future? What about the components? Can Segway expect the prices for the processors, MEMs gyroscopes, and batteries to drop? In twenty years, will a Segway cost, say, $300?

[Antagony]

quote:Does anyone have any idea about the cost for the parts in a Segway? And how much of the retail price is going towards recovering the R&D costs?

This question has been brought up earlier on TIQ. KCDG or No1 did an estimate. You might want to do a search there for the old posting.

[yop]

Found it. Thanks, Casey. Here's the URL, if anyone's interested:
http://www.theitquestion.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=10068&FORUM_ID=1&CAT_ID=1&Topic_Title=Tilt+Sensors+and+MEMS+accelerometers&Forum_Title=Segway+discussion

The thread ended with the issue still undecided. Lazarus=no1 came up with some numbers that gave a total cost for parts of $2125. Seido pointed out that Lazarus=no1 got the number of one of the components wrong, so the price drops by $500. Seido also pointed out that Lazarus=no1 was using the retail price for the batteries and suggested that Segway could probably get them for at least $250 less. Lazarus=no1 agreed with Seido and said that he would go back and check all the prices he used, but the thread petered out without any price updates.

So, as things stand, those numbers give a total of $1375 for the components. However, that comes with the caveats that Lazarus=no1 wasn't sure about the numbers of many of the components, that some of the prices he used were flat-out guesses, that some of the prices he did find and use may have been retail, that he may have inadvertently omitted some components from his analysis, and that the costs of components may come down significantly with mass production. But $1375 is the best number anyone has been able to come up with. Using Lazarus=no1's formula for the retail price of a product, the final price to buy a Segway next year should be around $1375 x 3 = $4125.

Hopefully, Segway has managed to make some deals to bring that price down. Also, they might be willing to accept lower profit margins to build market share.

(Big thanks to Lazarus=no1, if you're out there. Gathering the info for this analysis obviously took a lot of work.)

[Seg-wager]

For me, up to $3,500. Going above that in this economy would be tough.