Segway Sales

[tomamil]

I ran across this exchange from back in December and couldn't resist reposting it, particularly since I took such a shellacking for daring to suggest that Segway LLC had a sales and marketing problem.

Oh well, maybe we're due for a late Spring this year.

quote:Originally posted by Stewbonz

[quote]Originally posted by tomamil

"if Segway were selling "a few hundred machines a week" they'd be dancing in the streets up in LLC's hometown in New Hampshire.

I'd be surprised if they're selling a few dozen machines a month."

Hi Tomamil,
The Segway went on sale to the public less than a year ago. We know they sold at least 6,000 units or more, with no advertising. They are not even available overseas yet. I doubt they are in distress at this point.
I predict they will have a huge run-up in sales next spring.

JEFF JARVIS
ThailandSegwayTours.com


Tom A. Milstein

[BruceWright]

Hey, you got a link to that thread?

I hope I wasn't one of the people giving you grief!

Yep, they needed to get a move on. We'll see how the new people do!

-Bruce Wright

Segway: Vehicle of Dream

[BruceWright]

A good object lesson in civil conversation.

Thanks for the "I told you so".

http://www.segwaychat.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=6315

-Bruce Wright

Segway: Vehicle of Dream

[SegwayUtah]

Hmm. There _are_ a ton of new Segway HTs running around here in Utah this spring, so I'm not sure what the "I told you so" is about. Especially since we have had a total of like ten days of good weather here in Utah, and the HTs are already "coming out."

Once spring kicks into gear, I do imagine that Segway LLC will see quite a few new sales out here. I know people who are already planning on buying one this spring, have money set aside, etc.

Chris

[wayne]

Two things will sell the Segway;

Batteries that 30+ miles per charge.
Freedom to ride on streets and sidewalks.


LLC can fix both of these problems if they want too.
It only takes good people and money.



Seg-On
Wayne

[BruceWright]

That and the fact that they replaced their old marketing heads with people who have sold recreational vehicles before.

I think Segway LLC got the message.

-Bruce Wright

Segway: Vehicle of Dream

[Ground Loop]

I'm starting to think I'm the only HT owner around that is Perfectly Content with the current range. 30 Miles?! Would you really want to ride sidewalks and crosswalks standing on the zero-suspension platform for almost three hours? That's a long ride -- long enough to excuse firing up the car.

I'd rather have a smaller/lighter/cheaper HT with the same range, or maybe higher speed or faster charging.

Think about how many people have asked about or demo'd your Segway.. how many of them said "I'd buy one, but since it won't go further than 10 miles, it's of no use to me." Maybe it's a San Diego thing, but most people say it's just too expensive.

[wayne]

"Would you really want to ride sidewalks and crosswalks standing on the zero-suspension platform for almost three hours?"

So you can understand;

Why have a 20 gallon tank on your car. A 2 gallon tank would do, you just stop every 25 miles and fill up.

30 miles+ would be great for the ones who go to work on them, work in a business with them, delivery service (postal service), police or even pleasure riding. You know that you can leave home and not worry about running out of juice before you get home.

Who wants to have to take a power cord around with them in hope they can charge up someplace and then have to wait 4 hours to charge?

The rental people should love it.

How many are only getting 7 to 10 miles per charge?

LLC is not only missing the boat, they haven't even got a ticket.

Seg-On
Wayne

[Sal]

Wayne makes a good point. I think having higher range on the batteries, 30 miles as has been mentioned, doesn't mean one will be riding for that long, but only means that one is able to go somewhere within a reasonable distance, and not have to worry about losing charge and having a Dead Segway on the way back.

Increasing range would just mean being able to get back to point A after having reached point B.... without having to recharge.

I think it's the logical next step to making the Segway better.

-Sal

Think Different
www.apple.com

Answers that Matter
www.lilly.com


http://home.earthlink.net/~sal1k/images/si2f.jpg

[SegwayUtah]

Yes, greater range would be a definite plus. If I could get 20 miles of consistent range (with more when riding super-smoothly), that would be perfect. Even if I could get 15 miles of range in the cold months, it would be a big boon.

Right now, a lot of us travel 6 or 7 miles to go somewhere, and then can't return for at least 4 hours (for a full charge).

Chris

[Stan671]

Considering that a pair of batteries is $590 and higher range batteries would certainly cost lots more money, increased range for the HT would drive up the cost quite a bit.

Given the current technology, longer range and lower price are probably mutually exclusive.

I agree with someone else that said that everybody complains about the cost and so far most people I have talked to have not thought the 8 miles range I say I get is keeping them from buying.

I think it is more important at this point to get the price down than the range up.

Stan Dobrowski

[wayne]

Stan, getting the range up will get the price down (more will be sold for business use).
If LLC wanted too they could make extra batteries (new shape and streamline) to mount next to the gearbox until a better battery could be made. Then only the ones who needed the extra range could purchase the extra (snap-on) batteries. These could be activated with a switch when the other batteries start to run low.
I'm no expert on batteries but I would bet that the batteries are no where near the price that LLC sells them for. That is just a way to make extra money off us since we HAVE to purchase them from LLC.

Put cheaper and better batteries out and I'll bet that by itself helps sell the Seg.

Seg-On
Wayne

[Ground Loop]

Not to be argumentative, but Segway isn't making as much as you might guess from the battery packs. Those SAFT cells are high-end stuff, and there are 60 in each $300 pack. Last I saw, 3+Ah SubC cells were going for about $4 EACH wholesale, so that's almost the entire cost right there.

Add thermal/short protection circuit, monitoring thermistor, durable sealed plastic case, connectors, warranty, and assembly, and they're probably the lowest-margin part of the whole HT.

[wayne]

Well, like I said, I'm not battery expert.
But it's like everything else the more that is made the less the price. So more Segs on the road less the cost. I'm sure we will see changes in the batteries in the next year.
The sooner the better for us and LLC.

Thanks for the infro.


Wayne

[Stan671]

I don't think there is going to be much of an effect on the price of the Segway from them making more. The Segway is more mechianical than electronic. There are large metal parts of the base and CS, there are custom made motors, gear boxes, wheels, tires, fenders, Balance Sensor Array, etc. These are all specialized parts that nobody else uses. The batteries are very sophisticated with electronics and temperature sensors all glued together with gorilla snot.

The purely electronic stuff is really just the two main circuit boards in the base, the battery charger, and the small board in the CS.

All of that mechanical stuff does not follow the same price/quantity curve that we see for pure electronics. The mechinicals use lots of varying raw materials and less robotic assembly lines than does the electronics. So, overall, there is not much on an economy of scale with this kind of product.

Think about in - electronics (including computers) are the only products that consistantly show a pattern of more product capabilities for less money every year. Cars cost more every year. New houses cost more every year. Lawn furniture costs more every year. Bread costs more every year. Computers cost less every year or for the same price as past year, you can get a much more powerful computer.

In terms of price/quantity (economy of scale), I think that the Segway is more in the category of lawn furniture than the computer. And the quantities of HT's that are going to be sold for the next few years is not even going to be close to these other products.

IMHO

Stan Dobrowski

[Stewbonz]

Building Segways over here would lower the costs. A very good dependable, enthusiastic cheerfull worker makes as little as $100/month.
Can survive quite well on that small salary.

JEFF JARVIS
http://www.thailandsegwaytours.com/

[Stan671]

It only takes Segway workers about 10 minutes in the NH factory to assemble a Segway. All of the sub assemblies come ready to mount. So, the final assembly is only a small fraction of the cost.

Stan Dobrowski

[wayne]

"Building Segways over here would lower the costs. A very good dependable, enthusiastic cheerfull worker makes as little as $100/month.
Can survive quite well on that small salary."

JEFF JARVIS


That is what is wrong with America now, jobs going out of the country.
Yes I know, most of the Seg parts are from other countries.



Seg-On
Wayne

[SegwayUtah]

Stan,

I don't have a magic ball that says what Segway's costs are or what the price of an HT will be this Christmas, or next Christmas, or the Christmas after.

Yes, there are a lot of mechanics in these wonderful machines. There are a lot of things that are very expensive. However, some or much of the cost of the HT is there to cover the development costs of the machine, which is the only way things like this can be created.

As more units are sold, these development costs will be amoritized across many more units, and the price will be able to fall. I don't know if it will fall faster than the parts costs increase, but I'm guessing it will.

Yes, eventually the price will start coming back up with this kind of product, due to inflation. Things don't go down in price forever.

I'm just glad that the people who invented the Segway are seeing profits from it. I am excited to see more units sold, so they can make more profit and so the price can fall somewhat so sales keep on going up and up.

Chris

[verbl800]

wayne

That is what is wrong with America now, jobs going out of the country.
Yes I know, most of the Seg parts are from other countries.

Pretty naive statement...foreign outsourcing provides a net economic *benefit*. It's easy to be a sheep and follow the naysayers who criticize foreign outsourcing, but almost all who argue against foreign outsourcing simply misunderstand the issue.


SegwayUtah

Yes, eventually the price will start coming back up with this kind of product, due to inflation. Things don't go down in price forever.

Not exactly true; PC prices have long been on the decline, counter to the effects of inflation. The reason Segways will probably not have the same price deflation is simply because of lack of demand. With higher demand comes the ability of LLC to apply economies of scale, something LLC obviously can't apply towards their current demand base.

[W9GFO]

quote:Originally posted by Ground Loop

Not to be argumentative, but Segway isn't making as much as you might guess from the battery packs. Those SAFT cells are high-end stuff, and there are 60 in each $300 pack. Last I saw, 3+Ah SubC cells were going for about $4 EACH wholesale, so that's almost the entire cost right there.

Add thermal/short protection circuit, monitoring thermistor, durable sealed plastic case, connectors, warranty, and assembly, and they're probably the lowest-margin part of the whole HT.


I agree, the Seg batteries are not a bad deal, although I can get higher capacity cells for less than $4 each.

One thing I think that would benefit the batteries is to have a discharge cycle. Currently each battery has six blocks of ten that are charged individually. In a perfect world each cell would be charged invidually. But, when it comes to discharging, the only way to do it is by running the HT down. So as soon as one block pulls the pack below the cutoff voltage discharge will cease, never letting the remaining cells to completely discharge.

I believe that this is the reason that some people are having battery problems. Cycling cells does work to bring them back in many cases, but if you can't discharge them fully...

Rich H
New Mexico

[SegwayUtah]

quote:quote:SegwayUtah said:
Yes, eventually the price will start coming back up with this kind of product, due to inflation. Things don't go down in price forever.
verbl800 said:
Not exactly true; PC prices have long been on the decline, counter to the effects of inflation.

Like I said, eventually the price will start coming back up. Eventually. PCs can't get less expensive forever, either. One day, who knows, they may be $1.00. I don't know what the "low point" is in the price for a PC or a Segway, but I don't know of anything that, in time, will not either come up in price or cease to exist.

Chris

[verbl800]

SegwayUtah - not arguing with you, just trying to understand your logic; why do you believe prices of all goods are forced to increase over time? That would seem counterintuitive to me, but perhaps you are better versed in economics than am I.

[Matt]

Bill gates was quoted this week (I will try to find the link) that hardware would soon be offered for free. (Of course Windows would then cost several thousand, but hey, you could always load linix).

[QuadSquad]

quote:Originally posted by verbl800

SegwayUtah - not arguing with you, just trying to understand your logic; why do you believe prices of all goods are forced to increase over time? That would seem counterintuitive to me, but perhaps you are better versed in economics than am I.



Well for once, and it pains me greatly to say this, I agree with Verbl!

[Ground Loop]

All I know is that whenever I go to buy a good laptop PC, it costs $1500 to $2000, and it's been that way for 10 years. Sure you get more memory/hard-drive/performance, but it's not like I can find a $100 laptop after all this technological improvement.

[StephenM]

quote:Originally posted by SegwayUtah

I'm just glad that the people who invented the Segway are seeing profits from it. I am excited to see more units sold, so they can make more profit and so the price can fall somewhat so sales keep on going up and up.

Profits?
Go back and review this thread from February:
http://www.segwaychat.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=6784
You don't mortgage the factory if you are making a profit. Things may be getting better, but they aren't out of the woods yet.

[wayne]

My first PC was a Tandy about 17 years ago for $1700.00. You can now purchase a PC for $450.00 to $1200.00 that will do 100 times more than the Tandy. (Just got two this past year, one at $550.00 and one at $1100.00)
Only difference was one had XP and the $1100.00 had Windows 2000.

I think the reason the laptop holds its price is because they know most are used for business use and they can get the price they want.

Everyone charges business more just because they can.

If the Seg was used 90% for business then LLC would still be getting $8000.00 plus.


Seg-On
Wayne

[Stewbonz]

Besides being a great place to manufacture quality goods Thailand is a very nice place to live.
Independent Country for over 800 yrs. Has the worlds longest reigning Monarch, became a boy King over 50 years ago and is loved by all. Turned his Palace Grounds into a trade school, takes in stray dogs, writes and plays music and guides his people with a kind heart.
You can view the worlds most beautifull Temples with their guilded roofs shimmering day and nite. More than 4000 Temples in Bangkok alone!
A computerized Skytrain whisks passengers to any corner of town in 10 minutes.
The most modern shopping and entertainment complexes in Asia can be found here too.
Everyone seems to have a cell phone and Internet access is widespread.
The mercedes dealer claims to have sold 5000 cars here last year.

Yes, Land Barons, entertainers , politicians, people in technical fields can earn millions but $100/mth is a normal salary for a laborer, housekeeper, driver type work. The bi-lingual staff at the front desk of a hotel will earn about $200/ mth.
My Brother in-law runs a department at Bangkok Tech, earns about $500/mth.
Thais are a proud people for good reason, they have a very good place here. They eat well and dress well, always looking good and generally very cheerfull.
Cost of living varies widely. An apartment can rent for $25/mth or a house in a prime area can go for 3,000 to 5,000 $/mth.
The best hotel room in town goes for over $6000/nite!
Streetside food for 50 cents or the best French dinner for $300. The options are incredible.

And yes, the girls are pretty. Check out my Demonstration Team here: http://f1.pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/youngjarvis/detail?.dir=/2a73&.dnm=2b8f.jpg



JEFF JARVIS
http://www.thailandsegwaytours.com/

[SegwayUtah]

quote:quote:SegwayUtah said:
Like I said, eventually the price will start coming back up. Eventually. PCs can't get less expensive forever, either. One day, who knows, they may be $1.00. I don't know what the "low point" is in the price for a PC or a Segway, but I don't know of anything that, in time, will not either come up in price or cease to exist.

verbl800 said:
SegwayUtah - not arguing with you, just trying to understand your logic; why do you believe prices of all goods are forced to increase over time? That would seem counterintuitive to me, but perhaps you are better versed in economics than am I.

verbl,

Sorry for the confusion. I was saying that at some point a given product does not get cheaper. At that point, the price can stay the same or it can go up. This isn't some huge economic principle or anything, it's just basic economics and math.

PCs may come down to $50.00 in time, and that might be the "low price point" beyond which they never drop. The may be $50.00 forever past that point, but if it's the monetary value that can't drop then the price will rise with inflation.

And if computers were free, they couldn't get any cheaper either :) They'd either have to stay the same price or go up in price, unless you were getting paid to take them. But they wouldn't be getting cheaper--they'd be subsidized.

Does that make sense? I feel like I'm doing some mathematical proof all of a sudden. Hee hee.

Back on the main topic, I imagine that HTs will come down in price. Whether that is a drop in price to $3,495 or a drop in price to $2,995 or $1,995 I do not know. I don't know the numbers, and I don't want to speculate; someone might think I actually knew what I was talking about ;)

Chris

[mrleisure]

Speaking of sales, what is the chance that the Segway just won't catch on?

At this point it seems to me that most folks just aren't seriously interesting in owning a Segway. Even if the price dropped another 10% I don't believe the machines would suddenly fly off the shelf. I have a hard time understanding how the Segway will become anything more common than those recumbant bicycles you occasionally see. Maybe it's best this way, being a rarity has it's advantages.

The world I see has us living in a gasoline powered empire, with little will to change a thing. Why bother? Even if the price of oil doubles again it's still an incredible bargain.

I think the reality is that Segway owners are a small minority, and it's not going to materially change anytime soon. Maybe some towns will go from having 2 Segways to twice as many (4 Segways) this year, but not some crazy exponential like 20 Segways.

Hey, did anyone ever figure out what the official value proposition for owning a Segway is? I'm serious, I really don't know.



"In the future, we will all drive standing up"
David Byrne, in 1984

[Ground Loop]

I'm curious to know people's guess at this:

Do you think Segways are selling faster NOW than they were this time last year? Is the sales pace picking up, slowing down, or about the same?

How about SegwayChat.. are we gaining members faster than this time last year?

Are you seeing more riders in the wild? There are quite a few here in San Diego, and I have yet to see one.

[wayne]

Selling less, but picking up dealers and new areas, sales should pick up later this year.
Gaining less members than last year. Frank can tell you the numbers.
Only riders I've seen was at SegFest Chicago.
Never seen another rider in my area since I got mine last March.




Seg-On
www.kcaps.com

[Florida Ever-Glides]

I talked to our Regional Manager yesterday and he said that LLC had it's best month ever just recently. Sales are definitely picking up, but I hope not too quickly, just responsibly...

Tom Jacobson

[statmed]

quote:Originally posted by mrleisure

At this point it seems to me that most folks just aren't seriously interesting in owning a Segway.

The world I see has us living in a gasoline powered empire, with little will to change a thing. Why bother? Even if the price of oil doubles again it's still an incredible bargain.


It's funny, when I bought my Segway I thought I would just use it for fun, but after a few months I began using it for everyday errands. It has now become "my world". And I'm glad I'm not driving and paying high gas prices to money hungry Arab natins and gasoline companies.

In NYC, I can see the Segway eventually becoming the norm. There is so much I can do on it within the range it can go. I'm already using it each day and it has become my norm, and my neighbors here see it as well.

Perhaps in more rural areas it may have limited use, but in urban cities, I can see it will eventually become an everyday thing.



H.M. Stern
statmed@optonline.net

I Love It When A Plan Comes Together (Hannibal Smith)

[SegwayUtah]

quote:wayne said:
Selling less, but picking up dealers and new areas, sales should pick up later this year.
Gaining less members than last year. Frank can tell you the numbers.
Only riders I've seen was at SegFest Chicago.
Never seen another rider in my area since I got mine last March.

I know there are at least a half-dozen Segway HTs riding around the area here, yet I am yet to see another rider in my area outside of my close friends. When there are 300,000 HTs out there, then you'll probably see them on a frequent basis. Even when there are 100,000 HTs out there, you'll run into one from time to time.

I can think of cars with production runs of 100,000 a year, where there are at least a half million of them out there, that I don't see but once every few months.

Chris

[defenbaugh]

quote:Originally posted by mrleisure

... Hey, did anyone ever figure out what the official value proposition for owning a Segway is? I'm serious, I really don't know. ...

Albaby once posted this and it was not encouraging. His final point being replacement of batteries at the rate and price now thought required divided by total mileage did not come out in favor of Segways replacing autos. One can only afford it if the non-tangibles are factored in-fun, prestige, segway smile, etc.

Ron
"Literacy requires reading, change requires effort and enlightenment requires courage."

[BruceWright]

Nah, computers never get cheaper.....

http://www.cybersalt.org/cleanlaugh/images/c/computerdeal89.jpg

That's 1989. Wayne, how did you get one for $1700?!!?


(remember that's over $12,000 when you adjust for inflation!)


Actually, tandy had quite a range of computers at various prices.

But even $1700.00 17 years ago means almost three grand in current dollars.

Plus, I can buy a decent PC for $400 nowadays.

http://www.trs-80.com/

-Bruce Wright

Segway: Vehicle of Dream

[SegwayUtah]

quote:Ron said:
Albaby once posted this and it was not encouraging. His final point being replacement of batteries at the rate and price now thought required divided by total mileage did not come out in favor of Segways replacing autos. One can only afford it if the non-tangibles are factored in-fun, prestige, segway smile, etc.

Hmm. I've saved roughly $5,000 in the last 7 months on car use (that's about $700/mo. for depreciation, gas, insurance -- the cost was actually higher that that). At this point, my HT is free and in 7 months I'll be $5,000 richer. As it is, I could sell an HT today for at least $3k, and so I'm actually at least $3k richer already.

$700/mo = $8,400/yr = ~$4.00/hr. raise :) Plus the free Segway smile.

There are a lot of us that live in a smaller world, so to say, where we only travel short distances (except for maybe once a week, and then we just borrow or rent a car or take public transit) and the cost difference between a new car vs. a new Segway HT is huge.

Heck, even without the cost savings, if it even cost the same as a car it would be completely worth it. If a car and an HT were the same cost mile-per-mile, it would then be a matter of personal choice. And the convenience of not having to take my car to the shop frequently, deal with oil changes, get gas, pay huge insurance, etc. is well worth it.

I honestly dread the day that travel patterns require me to buy another car.

Chris

[defenbaugh]

Albaby used calculations in the thread http://www.segwaychat.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=4269 to show that the SegWay at this time is not cost effective.

Caveat-These are not my calculations and I own two HTi's. But, this can be reasoning for most people not getting on the bandwagon.

Ron
"Literacy requires reading, change requires effort and enlightenment requires courage."

[IndyFIRSTengineer]

quote:Originally posted by QuadSquad

quote:Originally posted by verbl800

SegwayUtah - not arguing with you, just trying to understand your logic; why do you believe prices of all goods are forced to increase over time? That would seem counterintuitive to me, but perhaps you are better versed in economics than am I.



Well for once, and it pains me greatly to say this, I agree with Verbl!
Quad, I suppose you mean the first part of Verbl's post ... not the last part.

Stuart Bloom - Rolls-Royce Corporation
FIRST Team 1018 - Pike High School "RoboDevils"

“Who goes out and says, ‘You have a better probability of winning the state lottery than making a nickel in professional sports. And by the way, last year two million exciting technical jobs went unfilled in this country because you weren't there to take that job. And it pays you 10 times as much as flipping burgers, and it's fun and it's exciting and you get to create things and build things and help make the world a better place and help make yourself a better living.’ Who tells them this?”
Dean Kamen, founder - FIRST Robotics

[QuadSquad]

;)

[albaby]

Well, hello everyone! Did someone mention my name?

A few points on this thread:

1) Over the short term, the price of a product increases the more you produce of it. That's why all those supply curves that we drew in Introductory Economics tend to slope upwards. Absent significant changes in the product or the means of production, the marginal cost of a product increases the more you make of it. For example, a given factory might have a capability to produce 1,000 cars at a price of $2,000 each at normal capacity - but to produce another 100, they have to start paying workers overtime and pay a little extra for their component parts.

That general pattern breaks down in the long-term when you start to have economies of scale. But that's unlikely to happen for Segway. The reported normal capacity of the factory that they've built is close to half a million units per year. Which means that whatever economies of scale are inherent in production of that many Segways are probably already incorporated into the existing product.

2) The cost per mile equivalencies that I did before are probably a little more favorable to the Segway now. The cost of gas has increased significantly and the cost of the HT has declined. For folks who drive very expensive vehicles with poor gas mileage, you might actually be able to pay for the Segway through avoided automotive usage. But we might wonder whether such users are likely to have any desire to do so.

3) I don't think that there's any particular reason to suspect that price movements of the Segway will mirror those of consumer electronics or computers. The primary driver of those innovations is competition. Since the basic concept of the Segway is patented, and since the legislation is so narrowly drafted as to prevent someone from lawfully coming up with a substitute (like a more well-engineered Q, for example), there's no competitive driver for price reductions. The reason computers cost so little is that so many companies entered the market - at every component level - that virtually everything about the machine is now a commodity product.

4) Related to #3, the price of specific models of computer rarely fell very much - instead, the price of computers in general fell. The mechanism was not so much that companies learned how to make a model cheaper, but that competing models were offered at lower prices. One can argue (with flameproof boxers, of course) that this has already happened. A competitor has introducted a cut-rate version of an upright electric mobility device capable of travelling at low speeds in pedestrian environments and stable while at rest. It's called a Q. The Q may suck, but it's far more likely that a new model of Segway (either from LLC or a competitor) is introduced than the cost of the existing I or P series designs would fall very much.

Albaby

[defenbaugh]

quote:Originally posted by albaby

Well, hello everyone! Did someone mention my name?

Yup, we need someone to bring us down to Earth once in awhile:D:D. Welcome, back.

Ron
"Literacy requires reading, change requires effort and enlightenment requires courage."

[albaby]

Thanks, Ron. I still lurk a lot.

Actually, though, I'm surprised that there's been *no* increased sales efforts of late (or at least none reported). The spike in gas prices affords an excellent opportunity for an alternative vehicle.

For goodness sakes, just find a single city that's a really good target market (like Chicago, say) and commission a billboard in a high-traffic area.

Maybe that's the answer for Segway. Many products do a regional rollout before they try to go national. Not every product works in a national rollout. Maybe they ought to just pick a few major markets, concentrate on selling there, and *then* spread to other areas.

Albaby

[albaby]

quote:Hmm. I've saved roughly $5,000 in the last 7 months on car use (that's about $700/mo. for depreciation, gas, insurance -- the cost was actually higher that that). At this point, my HT is free and in 7 months I'll be $5,000 richer. As it is, I could sell an HT today for at least $3k, and so I'm actually at least $3k richer already.

Jeez, SegwayUtah - what kind of car did you drive?

For the 2-3K miles that you're driving your Seg, gas would have only been about $3-400 per year. And insurance - even expensive insurance - is rarely more than $2-2.5K year. Say, around $200 per month for both.

So you had $500 per month in depreciation - *after* you'd owned the car for a while? That's a mighty expensive, luxury car...and if you were only driving it 2-3K before, you were spending more than $3.00 per mile. More expensive than cabs!

Albaby

[SegwayUtah]

Albaby,

quote:Jeez, SegwayUtah - what kind of car did you drive?

For the 2-3K miles that you're driving your Seg, gas would have only been about $3-400 per year. And insurance - even expensive insurance - is rarely more than $2-2.5K year. Say, around $200 per month for both.

So you had $500 per month in depreciation - *after* you'd owned the car for a while? That's a mighty expensive, luxury car...and if you were only driving it 2-3K before, you were spending more than $3.00 per mile. More expensive than cabs!

I had an Audi TT. I got about 30mph on the freeway. New cars depreciate fast though, no matter what kind you get. I drove a lot more than I ride now, but a lot of that was completely unnecessary. We're kind of trained here in America that we need to drive a lot, psychologically.

The car depreciated almost $20,000 in 3 years. It was $40,000 new and was worth around $22,000 when I sold it after 34 months. My insurance was between $100 and $200 a month, and if it wasn't under warranty my repair bills would have been enormous as well. I thought German cars were supposed to be well built.

Now, if I had bought a Toyota Prius for $20,000 instead, I could have lost just $6,000 in value over 3 years, or roughly $178/mo. Add in $100 in insurance and $50 a month in gas, and that's about $328/mo. or $3,936.00 a year. Subtract out $400 for battery wear on an HT for that year, and you still have $3,500 a year.

That would take me just over a year to get a free HT.

There are a lot of us who live in environments where we don't drive more than 3-5 miles on a frequent basis, and the Segway HT is perfect as our primary mode of transportation. Also, for people who want to live "a little farther away" from the transit stations (in, say, Tokyo) for a lower cost of living, an HT is a beautiful thing.

I gotta run; I hope my math is all correct here. I'm in a hurry to get to a meeting :)

Chris

[SegwayUtah]

Also, there are a lot of families with one or two young children who have two cars, but could get a Segway HT instead of their second car and would love it. Or, for the cost of driving around that second car (and "underutilizing it" since it would be for short trips), they could get two HTs, and go on dates.

There are a ton of value propositions for the Segway HT, some of which are wide (fun, recreational, healthier emotionally and physically than sitting in a car all the time, reduction of a car in a 2-car family, great for people with more limited mobility, etc. etc.) and narrow (an HT is much more convenient for college students, people that live in areas where they don't travel far often as primary transportation, etc.)

There are lots more as well. The HT is going to make more and more sense for a wider variety of people as our cities grow bigger and closer together. For now, there are a ton of reasons why people should buy them.

Most of all, people think they're really cool. And they are. If they weren't so cool, and so fun, the utilitarian factor would have to drive the "reason to buy." But because they're cool, and fun, people can buy them for recreation and then they'll learn how useful they are as well.

Chris

[mzokc]

When the Segway HT replaces a car, real savings occur. However if you continue to own and insure the car the Segway replaces, you won't save much unless you are eliminating auto parking costs.

One of the best reasons to use a Segway HT is to enjoy the glide instead of drive, park and drive.

How many of us bought the Segway HT because of the fun we knew would occur the day we stepped on one? The practicality has been icing on the cake!

Mark

[tomamil]

I think I know the reason, Jeff.

If the Segway had sold in anything like the numbers originally projected by Kamen and Segway LLC (and most of us), it would today pose a very serious economic threat to a multi-billion dollar industry. Every Segway sold would represent a fraction of an automobile not sold. In other words, Segways would now be stealing a significant chunk of market share from an established interest.

This threat (which of course has failed to materialize) raises the stakes of the Segway gamble way above the $100 million originally invested in the development of the machine. The automobile industry is not stupid. A few dollars judiciously sprinkled in the media, among certain hungry advocate groups (pedestrian groups, bicycle groups, elderly groups, etc.), to a few publicity-hungry politicians -- you get the picture -- represents the ounce of prevention that is worth a pound of cure. Segway is rapidly transformed from "the next big thing" into a national laughingstock.

Segway LLC hasn't got a chance of defending itself against this kind of clever campaign. Why? They've spent all their bucks on developing the machine itself. To fight off Big Auto's disinformation effort would take a major gearshift up in New Hampshire. "LLC" would have to become "Inc." Segway would have to incorporate, issue stock, raise humungous amounts of marketing capital, and be prepared to lose shocking amounts of money to carve their market share out of Big Auto's hide. This is what Amazon did to the brick-and-mortar retail store industry, this is what Edison did to the urban gaslight industry, this is what the airlines did to the railroad industry (although in this last case, the capital mostly came from the government).

But this is not what Kamen wants to do. Why? Because corporatization means sharing or even losing power to the men who supply big capital. He can't believe he needs them, can't believe that he can't be friends with the auto industry, and above all can't bring himself to abandon his little technological fiefdom.

That's my theory and I'm sticking to it.
quote:Originally posted by Jeff Allen

I've reached the conclusion that since there are so many things that the LLC could do to increase sales, that they somehow are just not interested in increasing sales.

I've been hanging around this board for over a year. There have been many hundreds of suggestions made by us that we believe would help kickstart the Segway into increased sales and profitability but to no avail.

I have personally reached the conclusion that, for reasons of their own, the LLC is not interested in becoming a profitable company.

I'll leave it to you to figure out why they would choose this course of (in)action. I refuse to believe that they are "dumb" or "just don't get it". A company that has burned through over $100 million certainly has had access to the best resources available to do just about anything they want.

If they are satisfied with the way things are then that's their business - not mine. Those of us who expected with more push from the LLC have been repeatedly disappointed. I believe that we will never see the kind of marketing blitz we all seem to agree is needed to bring the Segway into the mainstream consciousness.

Onward!
Jeff Allen


Tom A. Milstein

[pam]

Don't know whether you're right or not, Tom, but this has been in the back of my head all along, too. Slower is better. It might be GREAT to see massive influx with thousands of Segways on the streets, (a kinder, gentler society <G>), but it would certainly bring about the same kinds of corporate responses you're discussing, and that would not be great.
Pam

[Florida Ever-Glides]

If automobiles were intorduced quickly into the mainstream, the numerous accidents/injuries/deaths would have slowed down it's evolution. I am glad that the HT is being introduced responsibly into society. It's use will multiply over time as it's acceptance becomes more wide spread. LLC is doing the right thing. They are much smarter than we think....

Tom Jacobson

[wayne]

"They are much smarter than we think...."


"I agree. If they didn't want it this way it wouldn't be this way."


This sounds good but just remember that Dean got on GMA and said that EVERY household would probably own at least two Segways.
Also when we put our orders in and had to wait until March 03 to get them LLC was in a building (big enough) in hopes of producing 10,000 per month. If they wanted to go slow there was no need for a building that size at the time.

Nope, its not planing it's just that they haven't caught on or the price is to high.
If LLC could sell 10,000 a month bet your bottom dollar they would.

It just didn't take off like Dean and a lot of us had hoped but I think things will look better this time next year.


Seg-On
www.kcaps.com

[pam]

But Wayne, he didn't say they'd own them next year.

Pam

[albaby]

quote:This threat (which of course has failed to materialize) raises the stakes of the Segway gamble way above the $100 million originally invested in the development of the machine. The automobile industry is not stupid. A few dollars judiciously sprinkled in the media, among certain hungry advocate groups (pedestrian groups, bicycle groups, elderly groups, etc.), to a few publicity-hungry politicians -- you get the picture -- represents the ounce of prevention that is worth a pound of cure.

I doubt very seriously that the automotive industry had any role in this.

Remember, the Segway may be unique in how it works, but it's hardly unique in what it does. There are a wide variety of short-distance alternatives to automobiles: motorcycles, mopeds, gopeds, scooters, razors, bicycles, golf carts, EPV's, gators, ATV's, and the most dreaded phenomenon of all - Mass Transit! The notion that the auto groups would have been willing to strike an accord with their most vocal opponents - pedestrian and bike groups - over something small like this is a bit fanciful.

Plus, Segway got as favorable treatment in its launch as you might ever hope to expect. It was legalized through affirmative legislation in nearly every state they tried. It received almost near-uniform positive press, proclaiming it a fascinating breakthrough in transportation technology. While some might have preferred universal admiration, the media coverage was overall extremely positive.

For goodness sakes, one of the states adopting EPAMD-enabling legislation was Michigan! If the auto industry had any objection to the Segway, they could have stopped it in Michigan with a phone call. Nope - the Segway had about as favorable an environment as it ever could have hoped to have, both in terms of regulation and public press. The credit, or blame, for low levels of sales rests squarely with LLC.

I also do not believe that the company is deliberately keeping sales at this level, or that they're the least bit happy about it. The public reports of the plant capacity in NH were for an output of about 40,000 per month, or about half a million annually. You simply do not invest in that kind of facility unless your business plan and proforma call for a higher level of sales. They've already had to go through a second round of financing.

What are they gaining by going slow? The HT is already legal virtually everywhere of note (except SF and NYC). At some point, they hope, there'll be enough of these things around that people will beging to notice them. Either Segways are going to function well in a pedestrian environment or not. If they do, they won't be banned - and if they don't, slow adoption isn't going to help prevent them from being regulated.

Albaby

[tomamil]

quote:Originally posted by albaby

Remember, the Segway may be unique in how it works, but it's hardly unique in what it does. There are a wide variety of short-distance alternatives to automobiles: motorcycles, mopeds, gopeds, scooters, razors, bicycles, golf carts, EPV's, gators, ATV's, and the most dreaded phenomenon of all - Mass Transit!

The Segway is entirely unique in what it does, as well as in how it does it. It is a new form of transportation, as different from the other forms as the airplane was from the railroad. Your off-handed dismissal of this uniqueness speaks volumes about your role on this board.

quote: The notion that the auto groups would have been willing to strike an accord with their most vocal opponents - pedestrian and bike groups - over something small like this is a bit fanciful.

"Strike an accord?" Get real. I doubt any of them had any idea where their "encouragement" was coming from.

quote: Plus, Segway got as favorable treatment in its launch as you might ever hope to expect. It was legalized through affirmative legislation in nearly every state they tried. It received almost near-uniform positive press, proclaiming it a fascinating breakthrough in transportation technology. While some might have preferred universal admiration, the media coverage was overall extremely positive.

And this proves... what?

quote: For goodness sakes, one of the states adopting EPAMD-enabling legislation was Michigan! If the auto industry had any objection to the Segway, they could have stopped it in Michigan with a phone call.

Michigan, for crying out loud? Michigan has about as much to do with the auto business these days as Pullman, Pennsylvania has to do with the railroad business. What century are you living in?

quote: Nope - the Segway had about as favorable an environment as it ever could have hoped to have, both in terms of regulation and public press. The credit, or blame, for low levels of sales rests squarely with LLC.

Don't you mean "Yep" rather than "Nope?" For this was exactly the argument I made.

Albaby, I've said it before and I say it again now: you are no friend of the Segway.

Tom A. Milstein

[BruceWright]

quote:Originally posted by SegwayUtah


Now, if I had bought a Toyota Prius for $20,000 instead, I could have lost just $6,000 in value over 3 years, or roughly $178/mo. Add in $100 in insurance and $50 a month in gas, and that's about $328/mo. or $3,936.00 a year. Subtract out $400 for battery wear on an HT for that year, and you still have $3,500 a year.

That would take me just over a year to get a free HT.


Where are you commutting to if you are spending $50 a month on gas in a Prius (55MPG), and can the Segway go that far!??!

Even at (much higher than the current national average) $2 a gallon, that's still 1,375 miles!

If you can tell me how you're going 45 miles a day on the Segway, Please let me in on it!

I top out at 15!

-Bruce Wright

Segway: Vehicle of Dream

[SegwayUtah]

quote:Where are you commutting to if you are spending $50 a month on gas in a Prius (55MPG), and can the Segway go that far!??!

Even at (much higher than the current national average) $2 a gallon, that's still 1,375 miles!

If you can tell me how you're going 45 miles a day on the Segway, Please let me in on it!

I top out at 15!

Bruce, that's right -- the Prius does get something like 55mpg. Ratchet that number back down to $20 a month for gas to be conservative then.

$178/mo. for depreciation, $100/mo. for insurance, and $20/mo. for fuel = $298/mo = $3576/yr. Subtract out $400 for battery wear on an HT for that year, and you still have $3,176 / yr.

Except, of course, that supply encourages consumption. Much like the first day that the "big dig" was completed and opened to the public in Boston and there were _traffic jams_, having a car encourages the owner to take trips which he wouldn't have taken without the car, and which may or may not provide a benefit.

Chris

[BruceWright]

quote:Originally posted by tomamil
[

Michigan, for crying out loud? Michigan has about as much to do with the auto business these days as Pullman, Pennsylvania has to do with the railroad business. What century are you living in?




Ford Headquarters: Dearborn Michigan.
General Motors Headquarters: Detroit Michigan.
DaimlerChrysler American Headquarters: Auburn Hills, Michigan

I would say that these companies might be able to contact their state representatives if they wanted to.

Tom, that was a rant, and a bad one at that.

Albaby may not be a Segway fan, but he's almost always polite. Something that your post wasn't, imo.



-Bruce Wright

Segway: Vehicle of Dream

[tomamil]

Bruce, Segwaychat is supposed to be a Board for Segway enthusiasts and supporters. I defy you to find one post from Albaby that exhibits these characteristics. He contributions are long and prolix, but never supportive, always subtly undermining to our cause. I lost patience and got rude. But you know, on reflection, I'm not sorry I did.
Maybe you should ask Frank to have me thrown off the Board so Albaby can continue to pontificate without having his feelings hurt.

Tom A. Milstein

[BruceWright]

Segway Chat is for people who want to chat about Segways.

Support not required, only civility.

That is, unless you can point me to somewhere in the Terms of Service where you have to be Pro Segway.


http://www.segwaychat.com/forum/tos.asp


Instead of asking someone to throw you off, how about we ask you to be nice?

-Bruce Wright

Segway: Vehicle of Dream

[albaby]

My feelings aren't hurt. But I am disappointed in myself. I would like to be able to contribute to the discussion without causing a disruption. And apparently I've failed again.

While I may not be a Segway "fan," I'm hardly an opponent of the Segway. In fact, I'm a slight fan - I think it's a relatively impressive piece of engineering, and I'd love to work on a project that incorporated it into the design. In fact, without divulging any attorney-client privilege, last week I suggested to one of my developer clients that they might incorporate a "Segway with each home" into their residential development as a means of addressing traffic concerns - a suggestion that was taken seriously, but tabled because we can't figure a way to require the Seg to be left behind with resales.

I do have opinions that I'm sure that others on this board don't share. I think that widespread adoption of the Segway will pose the same public infrastructure issues that widespread adoption of any transportation device would pose, and that those issues are legitimate subjects for debate by local governments. I don't think that what the Segway actually does - provide powered transportation for short distances at low speeds - is all that revolutionary. I think it's an extremely advanced (and rather clever) replacement for the scooter, not the automobile. And I don't think that the HT is likely to be a mass-market product, though I think it *is* viable as a specialty product.

But I've always tried to voice those opinions respectfully and directly. I've also tried *not* to be a tireless rebutter, nor do I post very often any more.

For the record, I was largely agreeing with your main point. After all, I think you were correct in identifying slow sales as a trouble spot for LLC, and that they wouldn't be particularly happy about current sales levels.

Albaby

[Sal]

Albaby,

Most of us respect your cogent posts, though we may disagree, I for one, along with many others enjoy the point-counterpoint.

I wonder if you'll be coming to Segfest?

;)

-Sal

Think Different
www.apple.com

Answers that Matter
www.lilly.com


http://home.earthlink.net/~sal1k/images/si2f.jpg

[defenbaugh]

Albaby always has an interesting and thought provoking post. He has a rational viewpoint, contrary to my biased "I-love-it-under-any circumstance-and-no-rationality-will-change-me" stance. However, I think he is incorrect about it replacing a scooter. It did not replace my car, bicycle, ATV (not quite, maybe some day), scooter, skateboard, or any wheeled vehicle. It is added to "my wheels on the ground" to compliment my stable. No one can argue against that position as it is totally irrational.

Albaby, keep posting. You make us think.

Ron
"Literacy requires reading, change requires effort and enlightenment requires courage."