View Full Version : CNET Singing The Same Tired Tune
pdantic
03-31-2003, 02:32 PM
In case you visit CNET (news.com.com) don't even bother to read the Segway article that's out there today:
http://news.com.com/2009-1040-994541.html?tag=fd_lede2_hed
It's just the same old "they're not selling as fast as they should, they're pricey, blah-blah-blah" song we've been hearing. And once again, they fail to even talk to enthusiasts like the folks here on SegwayChat... I sent a note to the author and told her she ought to visit SC to get an idea of the enthusiasm and community that is already building up in the consumer market.
Steve
The Joy of Segs: http://www.joyofsegs.com
hubbahbubbah
03-31-2003, 04:19 PM
Actually, unlike the infamouse Wired article, I think this one is pretty informative. The Segway does face serious challenges -- and anyone that thinks otherwise is looking through rose-colored glasses.
One inaccuracy in the article -- the Segway is no longer in the top 200 electronicslist on Amazon. It was in the top 200 at the beginning of March, then slowly rose to as high as 117 and has since dropped below 200 again. It is at 227 now -- the level it's been hovering at for around a week or so. Then again, as brick and mortar sales pick up -- as they are beginning to at the Florida Lexus dealer -- Amazon info will be less and less useful to us in tracking sales progress.
Hubbah
::: http://stinkyshorts.blogspot.com :::
there are many challenges of course, but the one thing that has been left out of just about every article is that large sales numbers and market share are most likely not as big as a deal as our a.d.d post-bubble views sometime would lead us to think.
700 segway hts = $3.5 million.
7,000 segway hts = $35 million.
many companies such as apple and bmw have low market share, but they're built that way. the same analysts who write about the segway, often predict other things. tablet pcs were "doomed" by cnet, turns out-- it's a surprise hit now. in the late 90's 3g and wireless pdas were going to really take off....well, they didn't yet.
the hts have been shipping for less than 30 days, in the usa...it's a marathon race, not a sprint. i think we'll see the usa market be interesting and challenging, but internationally, that's where alternative transportation is generally more acceptable, less litigious / transportation challenges in areas and other factors will present themselves. i think we should let history have it's most important ingredient, time.
cheers,
pt
http://www.bookofseg.com
hubbahbubbah
03-31-2003, 05:23 PM
Agree with most of what you write in principle, pt. But there are some time considerations, when you consider the large amounts of venture capital invested and the surely decreasing patience of the investors involved.
Also, even though the price tag of the HT is substantial and thus selling just hundreds of units will lead to revenues in the millions as you point out, I'm not sure how much that tells us without knowing their cost base, their current cash burn, etc...
Hubbah
::: http://stinkyshorts.blogspot.com :::
i'm not sure you or i could say that ther are "surely decreasing patience of the investors involved"...as you said without know the cost base, their current cash burn, etc... it's seems like commenting on segway in the first month of shipping units is premature, but that didn't stop the wired or cnet articles of course :-]
you'd think they'd at least one article would talk about celebration, fl...or the many people on the consumer side like us? what about someone like me who has given up a car, gone 600 miles, saved tons of $. where's the wired or cnet story there maybe that's not a good story though.
cheers,
pt
http://www.bookofseg.com
hubbahbubbah
03-31-2003, 05:47 PM
You're right, the lack of national positive coverage is disappointing, though there has been some good coverage of you and Frank in major papers. I guess otherwise, the community here just gets written off as the expected Early Adopter crowd -- and our infinite enthusiasm is par for the course.
Hubbah
::: http://stinkyshorts.blogspot.com :::
well--
we all "could" write to wired and cnet and tell them "where's the rest of the story?"...i bet they'd chat with us.
cheers,
pt
http://www.bookofseg.com
pdantic
03-31-2003, 05:54 PM
quote:Originally posted by hubbahbubbah
The Segway does face serious challenges -- and anyone that thinks otherwise is looking through rose-colored glasses.
Actually, my clip-on sunglasses are dark gray... ;)
I've got to agree with pt's assessment. Consumer sales have only been happening for 30 days, so it's probably premature to make any judgement call on the success or failure of the HT in the marketplace. But I don't think that articles that only point out the negatives are going to help the long-term success of Segway LLC.
Steve
The Joy of Segs: http://www.joyofsegs.com
pdantic
03-31-2003, 05:58 PM
quote:Originally posted by pt
we all "could" write to wired and cnet and tell them "where's the rest of the story?"...i bet they'd chat with us.
Actually, I sent the CNET author your e-mail address, pt! You've been an excellent and very balanced (no pun intended) spokesman for the HT community - hope you don't mind that I sent her your @bookofseg address... I mentioned your 120+ days of experience so she might be contacting you.
Steve
The Joy of Segs: http://www.joyofsegs.com
sounds cool with me. i think 3 months from now my experience will seem rather pedestrian with everyone using the ht after training in useful ways.
cheers,
pt
http://www.bookofseg.com
btw, everyone can post comments on the article(s) there and email the author (Dawn Kawamoto- dawnk@cnet.com):
http://zdnet.com.com/2100-1103-994766.html#talkback
cheers,
pt
http://www.bookofseg.com
lipinsky
03-31-2003, 07:36 PM
"I think there is a world wide market for maybe five computers." - Thomas Watson, Chairman IBM, 1943
In 1899, on the verge of the greatest explosion of technology the world had ever known, another far-sighted bureaucrat named Charles H. Duell put forth a proposal to close the U.S. Patent office. Said Mr. Duell, "Everything that can be invented has been invented."
I hope that puts things into perspective. Remember that next time you hear a nay-sayer.
emanresu
03-31-2003, 08:07 PM
This is the Segway "Optimists Club". I know that, so it's probably futile to point out that most people don't and will not, use the Segway like PT does. It is a toy. I like my toy. It cost me $5499 with tax. It will probably not change the world, but it made a real impact on my checking account. The news media is simply reporting the story, as it is.
pdantic
03-31-2003, 08:28 PM
quote:Originally posted by lipinsky
"I think there is a world wide market for maybe five computers." - Thomas Watson, Chairman IBM, 1943
Off topic: I work for IBM and with our current product push for "computing on demand" and server consolidation, it may turn out that ol' Tom Watson was correct! ;)
emanresu - the price tag is what's holding me back right now, and I'm in a high income tax bracket. I've said it before here and in other discussions; price is everything once the early adopters have bought their HTs.
Steve
The Joy of Segs: http://www.joyofsegs.com
BruceWright
03-31-2003, 08:30 PM
emanresu,
That depends on what you mean by "it" and "changing the world."
I take a longer-view than most people who think that merely the current $5000 scooter is the "it" that Steve Jobs saw and said would change the world.
I think he saw the scooter, the stirling engine and the clean water generator, and the ablity to cleanly burn any fuel you had available, and turn it into electricity and clean water, as well as heat or cool a house and run a vehicle (think: four wheels).
Replacing the internal combustion engine would count as changing the world in my book.
For another point of view, I look at Steve Jobs own little apple 1 computer, and the other little pcs that were called expensive toys around that time.
Nope, the little multi-thousand dollar pc's that could barely file 100 recipes were toys and totally unusable.
But they STILL changed the world, or rather future versions of them did.
I see the Segway as the first consumer item to use robotics to replace or augment human abilities (balance and walking). It works as an extention of the body's own balance system. A set of bionic legs, if you will.
Previously we required mechanical abilities to keep us upright. Now we've put thinking machines between input and output, using an electronic brain to give the machine its own balance, which we can rely upon.
I wouldn't want to bet against advancing technolgy in this field. I think that the field of robotic transportation will also change the world. And the field of robotic augmentation of human action is also just beginning.
Today feet, tomorrow wings -- just as Leonardo drew!
-Bruce Wright
Segway: Vehicle of Dream
emanresu
04-01-2003, 08:58 AM
I'm not betting against technology. In fact, I invested in it. I also had an Atari computer, (and a commodore), along with one of the first portable video recording devices, and an early version of the cellphone- the old mountain repeater type. I agree things will come of the Segway. CNET isn't talking about things to come, just what is. And so am I.
BruceWright
04-01-2003, 01:11 PM
Then I agree with you.
The $5000 scooter in my garage will likely not change the world.
Unless it runs over Saddam Hussain.
-Bruce Wright
Segway: Vehicle of Dream
fredkap
04-01-2003, 04:37 PM
MSN.com has picked up that article on it's home page titled "Segway sales sputter"
LLC needs to do PR.
Fred
quote:Originally posted by fredkap LLC needs to do PR.
there are many comments / suggestions and ideas on how segway should market and do pr (i didn't know there were so many marketing and product launch experts :- ] ). in this case pr doesn't do anything to an article that may or may not be accurate and incomplete. even companies like aol which are the media for many people cannot do pr that changes the opinion of a journalist.
marathon race...not a sprint-- i'm curious how and what will happen, but it takes time.
all that said, stories that predict doom are far more interesting than happy-sucessful stories, it's a cultural thing.
cnet doomed the tablet pc a few month ago too, i happen to be working on a project that has the sales data-- they're doing better than anyone expected (or so far reported). many journalists and analysts just didn't like the idea of ms with a tablet, so that's what was written.
the best thing (i think) is for segway to not spend millions on mar-com for the sake of marketing. we're 30 days in, we bought them-- my guess-- they've sold far more than expected in the consumer market.
cheers,
pt
http://www.bookofseg.com
BruceWright
04-01-2003, 06:53 PM
quote:Originally posted by pt
[quote] in this case pr doesn't do anything to an article that may or may not be accurate and incomplete. even companies like aol which are the media for many people cannot do pr that changes the opinion of a journalist.
Agreed,
but PR/Advertising can change the mind of a consumer, or at least present an opinion countering what the journalist says.
I may not be an advertising expert, but I did used to work on national advertising campaigns with major clients.
I think advertising is as ubiquitious as air in our society. You don't have to have a degree in it to have an opinion about it, indeed a pretty informed one. I think the average person is better informed to make a decision about what advertising works and what doesn't than almost any other subject.
More people know all the words to the Oscar Meyer Wiener song than know the name of the Speaker of the House, or can name any member of the Supreme Court.
-Bruce Wright
Segway: Vehicle of Dream
hmm-
segway jingle time?
:-]
cheers,
pt
http://www.bookofseg.com
2totango
04-01-2003, 07:05 PM
Thanks pdantic-
I sent an email extolling the author's brilliance, noting that not a single city has been redesigned since the HTs were put into general distribution a whole month ago.
wayne
04-01-2003, 07:12 PM
I'm for advertising the Segway. It has been out over a year (to special groups and companies) and it should be pushed to the limit to get more on the street, sidewalk or wherever.
The more sold the cheeper and better they will get and the quicker they will be accepted by your local towns and cummunity.
And the cheeper replacement parts will be, which is a plus for us.
Seg-On
if segway bought some prime time tv or even some target non-big 3 network tv, like cable channels you're looking at $10 to $20mm or so (at least). to break even, there would need to be 4,000 sales. that doesn't count many things like developing the content / staff / talent / etc...this is just a thought experiment. so spending $20mm you'd need to get at least 4,000 sales and if you don't (it's my opinion you won't)...you now have nothing to show for your efforts besides some old ads that most likely didn't reach the target you wanted and / or weren't that effective.
i'm willing to bet that there have been more than 4,000 sales on amazon and then spend was not $20mm to market them.
and speaking of amazon...they even think free shipping and lower prices would bring an even greater return on investment than tv:
http://news.com.com/2100-1017-984007.html
so...maybe not advertising for segway in mid-late 2003 will mean lower costs for hts and free shipping? who knows.
print-- let's look at print. what types of magazines / newspapers do you think segway should advertise in? web sites? which ones? i wouldn't mind seeing a couple pages in sci-am, national geo, pop sci and wired at some point...but if the choices are more marketing, international sales push or more government affairs work in the usa (every company has budgets / resource caps)....i'd go after international sales.
cheers,
pt
http://www.bookofseg.com
wayne
04-01-2003, 08:11 PM
Dean, sell one of those "choppers" you have. Can't fly both at the same time.
Spend the money on a little advertisment and in a couple months you will be able to purchase a couple of new "choppers".
Seg-On
remember all those companies that thought advertising would solve everything?...and all those super-bowl commercials?
cheers,
pt
http://www.bookofseg.com
BruceWright
04-01-2003, 08:34 PM
Commercials are one thing. Ads in a magazine are another...
But I have yet to even see an actual sales brochure from Segway. And don't get me started on the home-video camera "Message from Dean" at training.
Marketing isn't just about Super Bowl ads. It's about presenting an image, and professionalism is part of that image.
Making sales materials available to consumers is also kinda important.
Imagine if their marketing people were as brilliant as their engineers!
-Bruce Wright
Segway: Vehicle of Dream
hubbahbubbah
04-01-2003, 08:34 PM
quote:Originally posted by pt
print-- let's look at print. what types of magazines / newspapers do you think segway should advertise in? web sites? which ones? i wouldn't mind seeing a couple pages in sci-am, national geo, pop sci and wired at some point...
pt, Don't you think that the audiences of those magazines would already be familiar with the Segway? I think the affluent techy/early adopter crowd is probably largely aware of it already, so advertising to them in anything but the most targeted manner is difficult.
Hubbah
::: http://stinkyshorts.blogspot.com :::
hubbah-
yah, that's what i'm asking...where do ya'll think it would make sense to have print ads?
cheers,
pt
http://www.bookofseg.com
wayne
04-01-2003, 08:44 PM
Name and product recognition is the name of the game.
Seg-On
amazon doesn't count as a sales brochure? it's pretty detailed and it's the place you order it from. the other couple places on the planet that sell hts, have them there- with real humans and you can try one right there.
i think it's reasonable to say the the image of segway ht is professional, the first units were to law enforcement, goverment, etc...
marketing is tricky (and usually does not work) often the most brilliant marketing that i've seen or been part of is when you do something that no one would ever consider and at first pass to the folks not involved seems like it would never work. in segway's case, i think the biggest temptation would be to spend lots of money on marketing-- and for now, i don't think that would work at all with little return and what they're doing right now is exactly right on track (30 days in, shipping the units, training, etc..).
cheers,
pt
quote:Originally posted by BruceWright
Commercials are one thing. Ads in a magazine are another...
But I have yet to even see an actual sales brochure from Segway. And don't get me started on the home-video camera "Message from Dean" at training.
Marketing isn't just about Super Bowl ads. It's about presenting an image, and professionalism is part of that image.
Making sales materials available to consumers is also kinda important.
Imagine if their marketing people were as brilliant as their engineers!
-Bruce Wright
Segway: Vehicle of Dream
http://www.bookofseg.com
BruceWright
04-01-2003, 09:03 PM
I don't count anything I have to print myself as a sales brochure. Again, that speaks to professionalism. I can get a glossy sales brochure take-away for just about any vehicle purchase I can think of.
"Visit our Website" doesn't count as a sales brochure, as it limits your sales to those both able and willing to go out of their way to be sold on something. Those people are already sold(early adopters). They made their decision already based on information they gleaned by their research.
Sales brochures actively sell, because they paint a picture of a lifestyle as seen from the platform of the Segway. Imagine images of Segways in the ideal small-town, with a great old brick-fronted main street USA. Picket fences, neighbors sitting on porches, children running lemonade stands. No traffic, all smiles and waves.
That's what marketing is about. Conveying the story that a consumer tells or wants to tell about themself by purchasing the product.
If the Amazon write-up IS the sales brochure, I have to say, it sucks. Written by engineers, for engineers. Mmmm.... talking about non-integer-gear-ratios really gets me reaching for my wallet!
Also, postcards listing the weight, dimensions, range per model... awful. Yes, I want to spend $5000 now that I know I'm buying an object that weighs 85 pounds and stands 3 feet wide!!!
Let's get someone at LLC who can write really kick-*** copy. Again, I refer to brilliant campaigns for Saturn, the Macintosh, the Mini-Cooper, Nike. The classic 1960 print ads for the Volkswagen Beetle (Lemon. It's ugly, but it gets you there. ABSOLUTE GENIUS).
-Bruce Wright
Segway: Vehicle of Dream
toybuilder
04-01-2003, 11:47 PM
I personally thing it's too early for advertising. Most people won't "get it" when they see the ad for a Segway. (Most of us here "got it" early on because we read lots of detailed descriptions.)
I liken it to when the Palm Pilot first came out. There were lots of people laughing at it, and couldn't understand why someone needed a fragile electronic replacement for a paper notepad. (The Saturday Night Live "Palm/Post-its" parody comes to mind.)
I think there needs to be a bit more "real world" Segway use to be seen by the public for it to start getting understanding and then traction. Hopefully, some "cameo appearance" of Segway's in TV (news and shows) and on film will start to legitimize it as more than a silly toy for rich people.
http://www.pasadenasegway.com
Do not let yourself be forced into doing anything before you are ready.
— Wilbur Wright
pdantic
04-02-2003, 01:30 AM
Hey, remember the CNET article that started this all off? I got a response from Dawn Kawamoto regarding my e-mail to her, and I thought she did a great job of pointing out her aim in writing the article:
Hi Steve,
Thanks for your note. As you observed, my story was looking at Segway as a business, rather than focusing on HT's merits as a transportion device, the safety issue debate, or the engineering/specs of the device.
And because my story focused on the business side of Segway, I did my interviews with companies because they had a longer history of having an opportunity to buy the HTs. As the one year anniversary of HTs shipping to the *consumer market* comes to a close, I expect to revisit this issue again and will be contacting folks like you for comment.
I like your your reference to the Newton. But the future may be here sooner than you think. Loosely linked knock-offs are already hitting the street. As you pointed out, a product can spur a new industry but it doesn't always mean the original product will necessarily survive. I agree with you it's too early to say the product will fail. However, after a year of sales into the consumer market, the prospects should be all the more telling.
Dawn
So, let's all look for the upbeat article sometime during March, 2004. ;)
Reading some of the more recent posts, I have to agree that a television commercial would be ill-advised. An infomercial would definitely send the wrong message. So a good, low-cost way to get a pile of exposure for Segway would be to have them encourage early adopters to attend public events where they can hope to get TV coverage -- art fairs, sporting events, parades, etc... -- and provide the gliders with free, professionally-produced brochures to hand out.
From personal experience I know it isn't that danged expensive for a company to print up 100,000 copies of a double-sided glossy 8-1/2" x 11" tri-fold color brochure. If even one out of a thousand of the people reading the brochures ends up buying an HT as a result, that's another 1,000 sales. And if by attending those public events and hanging around the reporters another couple hundred thousand or million viewers get to see a Segway cruising by, that's even more publicity. Hell, Segway could even provide the volunteers with free T-shirts for putting in the time and effort - that's a lot better than having to buy 'em at training!
Steve
The Joy of Segs: http://www.joyofsegs.com
David
04-02-2003, 02:09 AM
I don't think that Segways will necessarily change the world, nor do I use it at all in the 100% utilization manner that PT does. HOWEVER, having now had my HT in Manhattan for several days, and using extensively to go about my regular business, I can tell you that it definitely will change the way I run my own life. Yesterday I glided through errands in a dozen places from West 23rd Street to East 89th Street, including on-the-HT stops at Brooks Brothers, Kinkos, PetCo and elsewhere. Today I was operating from East 17th Street to West 45th Street, with stops that included a fully mounted expedition through two floors of Paragon Sporting Goods. While I never would have taken out my car for any of these trips, I definitely would have used cabs. And based on a couple of days experience, I'm probably saving $20-$40 daily in cabfare. By my calcs, that means that I will have paid for my unit well before the end of the first year.
But much more important was the ease and fluidity with which I got things done. As I get more comfortable on the HT and get it fine-tuned with the carry bag, et al, I am aware of how much more I'm getting done and how much easier it is. Sure, $5K is an unsustainable price...but we (and they) have known that all along. Once this parallells the PC market (which started much higher and is now well-sub $1000) I am sure that there will be many more Segs than cabs in New York.
-David
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