Dean Kamen TED lecture

[Froley]

hello all
this may be old news and if it is please forgive me if it is--- but here is a link to a dean Kamen lecture on the human transporter on TED. I've been prowling TED quite a bit lately and recently discovered this.

http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/dean_kamen_on_inventing_and_giving.html

regards
Froley

[segsurfer]

I've seen it numerous times, and it is 6 years old; but it seems even more relevant now due to $5 per gallon gas.
-segsurfer

[opticat]

Thanks, Froley! Very interesting clip.

[mark1qhorsey]

The lecture was visionary, but the followthrough has been flawed. Look at the number of patents Kaman has on the PT- perhaps dozens. Unlike Toyota, which licensed their hybrid technology (i.e., patents) to everyone who wanted to use it, thus spreading "hybridology" around the globe more rapidly, Kaman has kept his "jobs program" for NH in NH.

The slow acceptance of the PT is due mostly to lack of a tech diaspora to everyone who wants it.

Sure, the PT makes more sense in Asia than most places in the USA. So, why didn't Dean give it to all of them for reasonable license fees?

Is there a National Security issue here? Was he prevented from exporting key components? Or are we the US just greedy?

[cmonkey]

Just look at the go-peds and pocket bikes. Laws had to be put in place AFTER they hit the market, so using them in different areas can have varied consequences.

Just the other day, I got to watch a goped user (adult) get a ticket for riding it on the sidewalk!

If the product was licensed and mass produced without the legal hassles figured out first.. I'm sure everyone would have made a pretty penny on a 'toy' that would have been a flash in the pan that couldn't be used on sidewalks or streets. Kamen's strategy is slow and painful, and I think it's paying off.

[SegwayDan]

Talk about a left field theory for the "failure" of the Segway PT!

"Diaspora?" You mean like pouring water on sand? Sure! Give those non-tandem-two-wheeled-self-balancing patents away . . . to Asia? That makes sense. How many mountainous unpaved dirt paths do they have? Yeah, perfect!

Oooh wait! Maybe I'm being too critical here. Perhaps there ARE a lot of applications for Segway PT technology. Let's see. . . Can openers? Nah. They might roll off the counter. Refrigerators? Nah. Hot dog stands? Mmmmm. I know! Ox carts! Put all those poor abused beasts of burden out to pasture! Stop the abuse!

No, I think the value of the Dean's patents pertaining to the Segway PT have value pretty much only in the context of mobility devices such as iBot, PT, and RMP, and only if carefully scrutinized from start to finish though every design and production step.

Why? Because SAFETY is Job 1. Trust that job to just any schmo who antes up a license fee? I don't think so.

And where are you getting these ideas of "failure" anyway? Did you predict Apple Computer's failure, too?

I think Segway is better off than ever these days with all the new interest from corporate, security, and law enforcement, and with the crossing of the gas price pain threshold finally starting to get civilians to take a second look at Segway.

You can't really call that failure.

The lecture was visionary, but the followthrough has been flawed. Look at the number of patents Kaman has on the PT- perhaps dozens. Unlike Toyota, which licensed their hybrid technology (i.e., patents) to everyone who wanted to use it, thus spreading "hybridology" around the globe more rapidly, Kaman has kept his "jobs program" for NH in NH.

The slow acceptance of the PT is due mostly to lack of a tech diaspora to everyone who wants it.

Sure, the PT makes more sense in Asia than most places in the USA. So, why didn't Dean give it to all of them for reasonable license fees?

Is there a National Security issue here? Was he prevented from exporting key components? Or are we the US just greedy?

[mark1qhorsey]

Dan
I just had finished listening to his lecture, in which Dean Kaman spent a lot of time extolling the virtues of the PT for - yeah, you guessed it - China, and other countries with populous mega-cities. How about Mexico City or Calcutta, or .... Don't we want them to have'em? When do you want him to license their production elsewhere than NH? Face it, Inc is almost broke for lack of effective market development of an affordable product, here and worldwide. Dean's shop could develop the software, and maybe other guts; hmmm, think Microsoft. Those companies that know how (think Hyundai as a wild guess) could knock em together so efficiently, and well, that geesh for a third the price, we'd have ten times the numbers of PTs on the world's roads today. Just a thought, but yeah the PT has been a failure in execution, not of Kaman's vision.

[SegwayDan]

There's no such thing as failure--only lack of persistence.

Segway has not failed.

[mark1qhorsey]

There's no such thing as failure--only lack of persistence.

Segway has not failed.

Very true, just that there seems to be blinders at Inc regarding the world marketability of their product. I wish that PTs were by now manufactured in the Millions of units per year, and thus at considerably lower cost per unit, in savvy places like Korea or Tiawan. Dean could have done that from the beginning, but his apparent failure of business acumen appears to have limited his ambition to slow ball... Enough, for me of this left-field opinion:D I love to glide, just gotto save pennies for years to afford $6.5 K for his wonderous machine. Mark

[JohnM]

I think Segway is better off than ever these days with all the new interest from corporate, security, and law enforcement, and with the crossing of the gas price pain threshold finally starting to get civilians to take a second look at Segway.

You can't really call that failure.

"If all we end up with are a few billion-dollar niche markets, that would be a disappointment." - Dean Kamen

[SegwayDan]

Way to take something out of context! But you're good at that.

Here's the rest of the paragraphs you "quoted":

A patient entrepreneur would revel in that assessment. But Kamen is a man running short on patience. For him, conquering the corporate market is merely a prelude to the battle to come. "The consumer market is where the big money is," says Michael Schmertzler, a Credit Suisse First Boston managing director and, with Doerr, Segway's other major financial backer. "But this is about more than money for Dean. Pardon the cliche, but he really does want to change the world."

With the Segway, Kamen plans to change the world by changing how cities are organized. To Kamen's way of thinking, the problem is the automobile. "Cities need cars like fish need bicycles," he says. Segways, he believes, are ideal for downtown transportation. Unlike cars, they are cheap, clean, efficient, maneuverable. Unlike bicycles, they are designed specifically to be pedestrian friendly. "A bike is too slow and light to mix with trucks in the street but too large and fast to mix with pedestrians on the sidewalk," he argues. "Our machine is compatible with the sidewalk. If a Segway hits you, it's like being hit by another pedestrian." By traveling at three or four times walking speed, and thus turning what would have been a 30-minute walk into a 10-minute ride, Kamen contends, Segways will in effect shrink cities to the point where cars "will not only be undesirable, but unnecessary."

Kamen isn't so naive as to underestimate America's long-standing romance with the automobile. ("I love cars too," he says. "Just not when I'm downtown.") And he is well aware that uprooting the vast urban infrastructure that supports cars, from parking garages to bridges and tunnels, won't happen soon. Which is why he has pinned his greatest hopes not on the U.S. but abroad, especially in the developing world. At a meeting with Jobs a year ago, the Apple co-founder proclaimed, in typically hyperbolic fashion, "If enough people see this machine, you won't have to convince them to architect cities around it; it'll just happen."

"There's no question in my mind that we have the right answer," he continues. "I would stake my reputation, my money and my time on the fact that 10 years from now, this will be the way many people in many places get around." Kamen pauses and sighs. "If all we end up with are a few billion-dollar niche markets, that would be a disappointment. It's not like our goal was just to put the golf-cart industry out of business."

The whole 2001 article in "Time" magazine is here (http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1001398-1,00.html). It's actually a well-written article for that rag.

Dean's statement which you quoted was CONDITIONAL and aimed ten years into the future. It was a HOPEFUL statement, not a dejected one--especially when put it into the context of the article and all of what he and others said at the time.

"If all we end up with are a few billion-dollar niche markets, that would be a disappointment." - Dean Kamen

[Five-Flags]

...
Dean's shop could develop the software, and maybe other guts; hmmm, think Microsoft.
...


Yep, that's what I want... Gliding along at 18+ feet per second with my safety preserved by Seg-Vista. You betcha!!!

And if you believe that, I've got this bridge in New York I don't need since I moved to Florida... I'll give you a good deal!!!:p:p:p

[JohnM]

Gee, Dan, when you put things into context like that, it really does start to look more like a failure than a disappointment.

[SegwayDan]

Gee, John, when you put it into context like that, others can better make up their own minds based on ALL the information, not just a slanted snippet taken out of context.

[JohnM]

Gee, John, when you put it into context like that, others can better make up their own minds based on ALL the information, not just a slanted snippet taken out of context.

Is that statement CONDITIONAL and aimed ten years into the future or based on here-and-now reality?

[SegwayDan]

And your point is . . .?

[Gihgehls]

Dan, please chill out.

You've already posted the article. Now everyone who is interested can read it for themselves.

Would you mind taking further gripes with johnm to a PM so the rest of us don't have to watch you argue? Thank you.

[SegwayDan]

Hey, I'm not the bad guy here, and I don't appreciate you telling me to chill about defending our ground against JohnM who has had this chronic "attitude" about Segways for years now.

I'm not about to "chill" or put up his continuing snide remarks, including this latest "quote" of his.

So why didn't YOU PM me if you've got a problem with what I'm saying here? I'm not afraid to post my real name and phone number, like many here seem to be. Just who are you anyway?

[SegwayDan]

It irks me no end to hear a bunch of armchair critics glibly pronounce, "FAILURE" over something they've had absolutely no direct involvement with. As if they "know best" how the company should be run better than the founder and those actually there on a daily basis.

How would you feel if you learned a bunch of your customers formed an online chat room and started talking amongst themselves about how you should be running your company, and how they think you've failed in your marketing efforts? Not so good, huh? Right.

[SegwayDan]

You people reading this thread need to watch the video and read the "Time" article linked to in this thread and do it somehow WITHOUT all this silly bias over how "difficult" it is to buy one and how "difficult" it is to use one amidst all the stupid crap we get as Segway PT owners out in the world.

Hear what the man is saying and ignore the criticism. The dream and concept are far from dead. All it takes is us owners to simply use them in our lives.

I admire Dean and Segway for DOING SOMETHING ABOUT IT. I admire Segway PT owners for DOING SOMETHING ABOUT IT. Forget about how hard it was to buy one. Forget about how hard it is to deal with lingering stupidity now and then.

If you fall off of it, get back on and learn what you did wrong and don't do that again.

But just thank your lucky stars that there are still people like Dean Kamen who have the wherewithal to get an idea and make it happen, and, at this time of year when we celebrate the birth of our beloved America, that we aren't prevented from enjoying the fruits of his and our own labors.

The price of freedom is constant vigilance and the willingness to fight back.

[Froley]

Hear what the man is saying and ignore the criticism. The dream and concept are far from dead. All it takes is us owners to simply use them in our lives.


I agree with this statement
sorry to have caused all this grief...i just felt the presentation displays the creator's thoughts surrounding the why of the human transporter. I admire this type of social capital thought process. I ordered my HT because of the concept of doing what i believe is necessary, on a personal basis, and to support the dream and the concept behind the HT.
I also wanted to offer a link to TED for those who might not know of it, which to me is a forum for excellence...and what the web was intended to be...
Froley