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JohnM
07-18-2005, 07:02 PM
http://www.techtree.com/techtree/jsp/article.jsp?article_id=5038&cat_id=517

From the article....
quote: You'd hear tons of management gurus talking about being ahead of the curve, revolutionizing the industry with innovation, and sometimes, building the future, in order to make sure your company grows and profits from it. The problem is, none of them know the true meaning of all that jazz.

9 out of 10 times, being ahead of the curve, being innovative and building for the future means certain death and sheer loss for most companies, big or small. These companies are three steps ahead of everybody around them, but by the time everybody takes the second step and reaches somewhere close to these companies to understand the true value of their innovation, they're out of cash, and on their way to the bankruptcy courts.

This editorial is a small tribute to a few such technology companies.

Segway: I know, they're not dead yet, but the way things are going, they're soon going to be. What people fail to see is that HT is only the first product Dean Kamen's technology can put to good use in. Electric vehicles, small footprint so you can par it in your cubicle, simple operation, reasonable speeds compared to the current speed of humans in traffic jammed areas? What's wrong? The Price, for one, and it will take some time to sort that problem out; time Segway doesn't have.

How far are we from seeing similar technology in ultra-compact personal-environmental-pods that wheels you around town while you enjoy your newspaper, unaware of how it manages to fit in a 3x3 foot space, or how it manages to balance on two wheels? Quite far, because they will go bankrupt thirty years before GM comes up with "Hy-Wire IQ 3.0 Personal Transporter" with a tiny sticker at the back of the car that says "Powered By Segway Technology" (or maybe not even that, as GM will pick all of Segway's IP in a distressed sale a few years later).

Bottomline? It doesn't always pay to be three steps ahead of the competition, as nobody considers them your competition anymore, and you're in a category of your own, which is then considered a niche, and people always wonder why it is a niche, and sadly, they always assume that is so because it is either irrelevant, or impractical, hence not profitable. You never get a fair chance when you're three steps ahead of the competition. Stay two steps behind.

JohnM
If riding 2 hours is fun, then riding 20 hours is 10 times more fun.
RUSA #235




gbrandwood
07-18-2005, 07:29 PM
An interesting perspective. Thanks for posting the article, John.

In the very wise words of Dean Kamen himself: "the early bird gets the worm - but the early worm gets eaten"!

They haven't rushed in, this is a marathon, not a sprint. Segway LLC is in it for the long haul and Dean Kamen is not stupid. It sounds like supply is only just meeting demand right now - and battery demand is another matter!

Safe, convenient, clean transportation is not really a niche, we just need to market and educate. The price will come down, eventually, but it is a big problem - people don't appeciate it's innards - but that's testimony to its sound design! The poor designers can't win!

-

To segue, or not to segue, that is the question.

Meng Wong
07-18-2005, 07:41 PM
Great piece. The technology can be ready but that's not enough. The market also has to be ready, and that's a bigger challenge.

My favourite books on Innovation:

Fast Second: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0787971545/
Blue Ocean Strategy: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1591396190/
Innovator's Solution: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/1578518520/
Crossing the Chasm: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0060517123/
Tipping Point: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0316316962/


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